Gold moved higher in US trading on Friday as China announced retaliatory tariffs on US exports and furious President Tump threatened further action.
Risk appetite collapsed at Monday's Asian open after Trump announced additional tariffs on Chinese exports and called on US companies to pull out of China.
Gold spiked higher with fresh 6-year highs above $1,550 per ounce as the US 10-year yield dipped below 1.45% and the Chinese yuan declined to 11-year lows.
Trump took a different tack on Monday with comments that China had called and wanted to return to the negotiating table and that a deal was achievable. In response, equity futures jumped and gold retreated to just below $1,530 per ounce as USD/JPY recovered sharply from 2019 lows near 104.50 to trade at 105.80.
Confidence in the global economy will, however, weaken further in the short term, especially given the corrosive impact of ongoing trade disputes. A series of comments from President Trump will also dent investors' confidence with strong demand for safe haven assets.
The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the September meeting and the ECB will also announce a package of monetary measures next month. Global monetary stimulus will tend to support gold over the medium term.
If currency wars escalate, gold buying will intensify as fiat currencies come under sustained pressure.
CFTC data recorded an increase in long, non-commercial gold positions to 300,000 contracts from 290,000 previously. This was the longest net positioning since September 2016 and the fourth highest reading in 10 years. This positioning will maintain the risk of liquidation and sharp losses if risk appetite improves. Caution is, therefore, needed on aggressive long positions with patience required.
週一沒有安排任何宏觀經濟事件。 如果市場在上週對宏觀經濟數據反應平平,那麼週一也不會有太大期待。
美國即將迎來一個重要的星期,但對於美元來說,這個星期可能並不重要。本週將發布有關勞動市場、職位空缺、失業率、GDP以及ISM商業活動數據的重大報告。
英鎊的表現甚至比歐元還要好。市場不斷找到額外的理由來增加對英鎊的需求,即使歐元保持停滯不前。
黃金今天維持著看跌的基調,儘管它已從日內低點略微回升,重新攀升至3300美元之上。 投資者依然寄望美中貿易戰有可能緩和的希望,這支撐了股票市場的正面情緒。
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