Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

In the second half of the day, the test of the 1.0481 level coincided with the MACD indicator beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point into the market. As a result, the currency pair moved approximately 20 pips downward before demand for the euro returned.

This renewed demand was driven by disappointing news from the U.S., particularly downgraded economic growth forecasts and weak performance in the services sector, which added pressure on the dollar. Additionally, geopolitical risks are also influencing the market. With the euro having undergone a significant correction, buyers should remain alert to changes in economic indicators and central bank statements.

Today, the IFO data is expected to be released, which could heighten concerns among traders and investors. A decline in the business climate index may indicate further economic deterioration in Germany, highlighting the difficulties faced by German companies, especially those dealing with high energy costs. If this trend persists, it could lead to a decline in the euro, along with more serious consequences for the entire eurozone.

These challenges might also prompt the European Central Bank to consider softer measures to stimulate the economy. However, many economists believe that such measures may be ineffective given the current global uncertainty.

For my intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches 1.0469 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0513. At 1.0513, I plan to exit the market and open a sell position in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30–35 pips from the entry point. Expecting a rise in the euro in the first half of the day will depend on particularly strong data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0448 level and the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Expect growth toward the 1.0469 and 1.0513 levels.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches 1.0448 (red line on the chart), targeting 1.0416, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (aiming for a 20–25 pip movement from the level). Downward pressure on the pair could return at any moment. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0469 level and the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. Expect a decline toward the 1.0448 and 1.0416 levels.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line: A suggested target for Take Profit or manually locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Critical for identifying overbought and oversold zones to guide market entry decisions.

Important Note for Beginner Traders

• Always approach market entry decisions cautiously.
• Avoid trading during major news releases to sidestep volatile price swings.
• If trading during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses.
• Trading without stop-loss orders or money management practices can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when using large volumes.
• A clear trading plan, like the one outlined above, is essential for successful trading. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently disadvantageous for intraday traders.