Trade Analysis & Reviews: 15.07.2019 - Can the euro break out of a...

15.07.2019 01:28 PM

Can the euro break out of a narrow range against the dollar?

The euro began a week of growth, although it remains within its recent trading range against the dollar. In general, foreign exchange markets are in a calm state and only the Australian dollar shows good dynamics in the encouraging economic data from China.

The euro/dollar pair has been stuck in a narrow range for several weeks. Investors expect the Fed to cut interest rates at the end of this month and the ECB will maintain a course for further easing in 2019. The euro rose 0.08% to 1.1282 dollars but it is still in the recent range of 1.14 to 1.11 dollars. Meanwhile, the dollar index remained at the same level of 96.81 points relative to a basket of major currencies. Analysts point out that the bearish sentiment towards the euro prevails given that the yield on treasury bonds is likely to remain one of the highest in developed markets, despite future Fed rate cuts. The euro should recover; Societe Generale believes that "For the most traded and most attractive currency pair in the world, the Fed's dovish tone, the President demanding to weaken the dollar and hints of optimism about the world economy, mean only one thing — the beginning of the rally".

The Australian dollar reached a 10-day high due to stronger than expected economic data from China, which signals that the government stimulus measures are working, according to some analysts. Industrial production in China recovered in June from a 17-year low in May. June retail sales rose 9.8% year on year. The Australian dollar gained 0.2% to 0.7035 against the dollar.

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