Analysis of Friday's Trades

1H Chart of GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair continued to trade with low volatility on Friday, remaining within the sideways channel of 1.2913 to 1.2980. For the last four days, the price has consistently remained in this range. Despite the strong growth of the British currency, there seems to be no inclination in the market to correct, even slightly. The market has been largely ignoring any positive news for the dollar, as evidenced on Friday.

On that day, reports on industrial production and GDP were published in Great Britain, marking the first reports of the week. GDP for January came in below forecasts, and industrial production fell by 0.9%, which was worse than anticipated. However, the pound sterling did not decline during the European trading session. This suggests that the market overlooked these reports, which would typically support the dollar. However, if Donald Trump announces new tariffs over the weekend, we could see the dollar drop on Monday.

5M Chart of GBP/USD

In the 5-minute time frame on Friday, only one trading signal was generated, which could easily be ignored. Towards the end of the day, the price bounced off the level of 1.2913, but entering the market before the weekend—especially knowing that Trump could speak at any moment and potentially cause market turmoil—was not advisable.

Trading Strategy for Monday:

In the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD pair should have started a downtrend some time ago, but Trump's actions seem to prevent this from happening. In the medium term, we still expect the pound to decline with a target of 1.1800. However, it is uncertain how long the dollar's downturn, influenced by Trump, will last. Once this movement concludes, the technical situation across all time frames may change drastically, but currently, long-term trends still point downward. The pound has risen in a manner that seems excessive and illogical.

The GBP/USD may continue to rise on Monday if Trump continues to make waves in the market and impose his terms. A downward correction is impending, but the market does not currently favor buying the dollar.

On the 5-minute TF, you can now trade at 1.2301, 1.2372-1.2387, 1.2445, 1.2502-1.2508, 1.2547, 1.2613, 1.2680-1.2685, 1.2723, 1.2791-1.2798, 1.2848-1.2860, 1.2913, 1.2980-1.2993, 1.3043, 1.3102-1.3107. There are no interesting events scheduled for Monday in the UK, while in the U.S., the retail sales report will be released. But we remember that the market does not need macroeconomic data at this time.

Core Trading System Rules:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important Events and Reports: Found in the economic calendar, these can heavily influence price movements. Exercise caution or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp reversals.

Forex trading beginners should remember that not every trade will be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing proper money management are essential for long-term trading success.